A Strategy Spinning Out of Control
The military junta, led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, rose to power in late 2022 promising to secure the country from jihadist groups. But nearly 40% of Burkina Faso remains outside of state control, plagued by violence from insurgent groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
In recent months, the government has relied heavily on hastily recruited local militias such as the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP). These groups operate with limited training and oversight. The Solenzo killings, allegedly carried out by a combination of Burkinabè special forces and pro-government militia, mark the most extreme example yet of collective punishment, one that targets civilians under suspicion of aiding insurgents. HRW notes that the victims were mostly Fulani, a community historically accused of harbouring jihadists, despite denials from Fulani leaders.
Ethnic Targeting: A Path Toward Genocidal Violence?
The Fulani, a largely pastoralist and Muslim ethnic group, have increasingly found themselves targeted in the government’s counterterrorism campaign. Human rights observers are warning that the attacks in Solenzo are part of a broader campaign that could evolve into ethnic cleansing. A similar HRW report last year accused Burkinabè forces of killing 223 villagers, a claim the government dismissed as “baseless.”
If these trends continue, Burkina Faso risks becoming another flashpoint for ethnic conflict in West Africa. The consequences would reverberate throughout the Sahel, where ethnic tensions are already high due to climate stress, political instability, and rising extremism.
The Geopolitical Shift: From Paris to Moscow
Captain Traoré’s government has pivoted away from traditional Western partners like France and toward Russia for security assistance. Following a recent visit to Moscow, Traoré met with President Vladimir Putin to deepen military cooperation.
Prognosis and Recommendations
If the current trajectory continues, Burkina Faso risks state collapse within 12–18 months. Already, humanitarian organizations are warning of widespread displacement and famine. To avert a full-scale civil war, the junta must: (1). Immediately cease extrajudicial killings and allow independent international investigations; (2). Disband and regulate ethnic militias like the VDP; (3). Invest in peacebuilding efforts, especially with marginalized communities like the Fulani; (4). Re-engage regional partners like ECOWAS for a coordinated response to jihadist threats.
The massacre in Solenzo is more than a security failure, it is a moral failure. If Burkina Faso’s leaders continue down this path, they may win battles, but lose the country.
Hi scholars
This is indeed a timely article