Escalating Conflict and Political Fragility
Somalia continues to grapple with chronic insecurity, primarily due to the persistent operations of the armed group Al-Shabaab. In the first nine months of 2024 alone, the group carried out over 120 attacks. The planned withdrawal of the [African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS)] raises concerns about a potential power vacuum that Al-Shabaab could exploit. The Somali Federal Government remains fragile and under-resourced, struggling to address both this escalating threat and the surge in, particularly in rural regions.
Climate Change: An Overlooked Threat Multiplier
Compounding Somalia’s instability is the profound impact of Climate Change. The nation is still recovering from a devastating drought that spanned 2021 to 2023, which severely affected agricultural livelihoods and exacerbated food insecurity. As 2025 unfolds, the La Niña anticipated weather pattern threatens to bring further climate extremes, droughts in some areas and flooding in others, potentially reversing recovery efforts and deepening community vulnerabilities.
Humanitarian Crisis and Food Insecurity
The confluence of ongoing conflict and climate shocks has led to severe humanitarian consequences. An estimated 1.6 million Somali children projected to suffer from acute malnutrition between 2024 and 2025. Restricted humanitarian access, especially in Al-Shabaab-controlled territories , has left nearly one million people without critical support. Displacement, poverty, and obstructed aid corridors are intensifying the crisis.
Poverty, Exclusion, and Limited Climate Financing
Despite international debt relief, over 20% of Somalis remain in extreme poverty. This systemic deprivation is further exacerbated by the nation’s minimal receipt of global support: Somalia contributes a mere 0.1% of global carbon emissions yet remains disproportionately affected by climate change impacts. This underfunding hampers efforts to implement adaptation strategies, disaster preparedness, and resilience-building initiatives.
The Role of the IRC in Supporting Communities
The International Rescue Committee (IRC), active in Somalia since 1981, plays a pivotal role in the humanitarian response. Operating in regions such as Banadir, Puntland, Jubaland, Hirshabelle, and South West State, the IRC provides cash transfers, mobile health services, water rehabilitation, and treatment for malnourished children. These community-focused programs serve as critical lifelines amid the prevailing crises.
A Call for Coordinated and Inclusive Response
Addressing Somalia’s multifaceted crisis necessitates more than immediate humanitarian aid. It requires investments in inclusive peacebuilding, strengthening local governance, enhancing basic services, and significantly increasing climate finance allocations. A conflict-sensitive and multi-sectoral approach is essential to ensure long-term stability and development.
Conclusion
Somalia’s challenges in 2025 represent a complex interplay of armed conflict, climate shocks, and systemic neglect. As the nation stands at this critical crossroads, the international community must act swiftly and decisively. The stakes are high, but with coordinated, well-funded, and people-centered interventions, Somalia can transition from fragility toward a more peaceful and resilient future.