Introduction
In May 2025, Libya’s capital, Tripoli, was engulfed in its most intense fighting in years. The violence, triggered by the assassination of a key militia leader, Nosignals not only a dangerous escalation of militia rivalries but also a critical turning point in the power dynamics of Libya’s fractured political landscape. Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, head of the internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU), has since moved swiftly to consolidate control, raising questions about whether the move represents a path to stability or a deeper entrenchment of authoritarian tendencies.
Background: A Fragile State Caught in Militia Politics
Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has struggled with fragmented governance, weak institutions, and the proliferation of armed groups vying for power. The GNU, based in Tripoli, faces ongoing rivalry from a parallel administration in the east supported by the Libyan National Army (LNA). In the absence of a unified national army, militias have filled the vacuum, becoming both security providers and political actors.
One of the most prominent of these groups, the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA), was led by Abdel Ghani al-Kikli, known widely as “Ghaniwa.” The SSA wielded significant influence in Tripoli through control of territory, detention centers, and lucrative smuggling routes.
Recent Developments: The Assassination and Armed Clashes
On May 12, 2025, Ghaniwa was assassinated in an ambush allegedly carried out by the 444th Brigade, a unit affiliated with the GNU and widely seen as loyal to Dbeibah. The killing ignited a violent backlash, with firefights erupting across key Tripoli districts including Abu Salim. Clashes between the SSA, the 444th Brigade, and the RADA Special Deterrence Force resulted in at least eight civilian deaths and dozens injured.
In response, Dbeibah declared a ceasefire and launched a coordinated operation to dismantle SSA infrastructure. His forces swiftly took control of SSA compounds and replaced militia checkpoints with formal police units.
Implications: Power Consolidation or Security Reform?
Dbeibah’s moves have been framed by his supporters as an effort to restore state authority and curb militia dominance. However, critics argue this represents a calculated political strategy to eliminate rivals and centralize power ahead of long-delayed national elections. While some see the weakening of the SSA as progress, others fear it simply replaces one armed faction with another under state patronage.
Public discontent has also grown. Massive protests erupted across Tripoli in the aftermath of the fighting, with citizens denouncing the GNU’s failure to provide security and basic services. This unrest prompted the resignation of three senior ministers, including those responsible for the economy, housing, and local government.
Conclusion: A Precarious Path Ahead
The Tripoli clashes of May 2025 underscore the precarious balance between militias and the state in post-Gaddafi Libya. While Prime Minister Dbeibah may have neutralized a key rival in the SSA, the deeper structural issues, fragmented authority, militia dependency, and political illegitimacy, remain unresolved.
For Libya to transition toward lasting peace, it must urgently address the root causes of militia proliferation through comprehensive security sector reform, inclusive political dialogue, and credible elections. Until then, any consolidation of power, however effective in the short term may only delay the next crisis.
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